In bond market terminology, what does an 'Inverted Yield Curve' typically signal about the future state of the economy?
- Rapid economic expansion and high inflation
- An impending economic recession or slowdown
- Stable, long-term sustainable growth
- A sudden surge in foreign direct investment
Answer: An impending economic recession or slowdown
Normally, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds to compensate for time and inflation risk (a normal upward-sloping curve). An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, indicating that investors expect future economic weakness, leading central banks to cut rates aggressively. It is a highly reliable historical predictor of recessions.